Contrarian analysis reveals lack of pessimism among market timers
- Market timers haven’t shown despair and pessimism during the recent market decline
- Contrarian analysis suggests that the late-October low is not the final low of the correction
- Sentiment indicators show a lack of capitulation among market timers
- Market timers have quickly become bullish during the recent rally
- Gold and bond timers also show strong sentiment indicators
Market timers have failed to exhibit the typical despair and pessimism that accompany a significant market bottom during the recent decline. Contrarian analysis suggests that the late-October low is unlikely to be the final low of the correction. In contrast to a year ago, when market timers became excessively pessimistic and stayed that way for several weeks, the sentiment picture in recent weeks has been different. Sentiment indicators, such as the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index and the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, show a lack of capitulation among market timers. Additionally, market timers have quickly become bullish during the recent rally, which is not a positive sign for the market. Clues from gold and bond timers also indicate strong sentiment. Gold bullion and gold mining shares have performed well, suggesting a strong Wall of Worry. Overall, market timers’ sentiment signals a bearish market outlook.
Factuality Level: 7
Factuality Justification: The article provides analysis of market timer sentiment and compares it to previous market bottoms. It includes data from the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index and the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index. The author also mentions the rise in the HSNSI and the performance of gold and bond markets. The article does not contain any obvious misleading information or bias, but it lacks in-depth analysis and supporting evidence for its conclusions.
Noise Level: 3
Noise Justification: The article contains some repetitive information and filler content, such as the mention of text-to-speech technology and the request for feedback. It also lacks scientific rigor and intellectual honesty as it relies on anecdotal evidence and subjective analysis of market sentiment. The article does not provide actionable insights or solutions.
Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: U.S. stock market
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Rating Justification: The article discusses the sentiment of market timers and their analysis of the U.S. stock market. There is no mention of any extreme events or their impact.
Key People: Mark Hulbert (Regular contributor to MarketWatch)
www.marketwatch.com 
