LPG exports set to rise in 2024-25 despite slowing growth rate

  • LPG shippers expect continued growth in U.S. and Middle East exports in 2024-25
  • North America LPG exports by VLGCs to grow by 12.3% in 2024 and 8.7% in 2025
  • Middle East exports of LPG shipped by VLGCs to gain by 4.9% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025
  • Transit restrictions at the Panama Canal causing longer voyages and higher costs
  • High oil prices and new propane dehydrogenation plants driving export growth
  • North American natural-gas liquids production hits all-time highs
  • Terminal Expansion Project expected to increase export capacity in the U.S. Gulf Coast
  • BW LPG to take delivery of BW Kyoto and sell BW Princess
  • BW LPG reports net profit after tax of $122.3 million for 3Q 2023
  • Navigator posts adjusted EBITDA of $72.2 million for 3Q 2023

Owners of very large gas carriers anticipate a continued increase in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports from the United States and the Middle East in 2024 and 2025, although the growth rate is expected to slow. North America LPG exports by very large gas carriers are projected to grow by 12.3% in 2024 and 8.7% in 2025, compared to a forecast of 16.2% for this year. Middle East exports of LPG shipped by very large gas carriers will see a gain of 4.9% next year and 3.4% in 2025, compared to a forecast of 5.3% for 2023. However, transit restrictions at the Panama Canal have led to longer voyages and higher costs, with ships taking alternative routes via Suez or Cape of Good Hope. Despite these challenges, high oil prices and the opening of new propane dehydrogenation plants in China are expected to drive export growth. Additionally, North American natural-gas liquids production has reached all-time highs, with increasing ethane and ethylene exports. The Terminal Expansion Project in the U.S. Gulf Coast is set to increase export capacity, and BW LPG is set to take delivery of the BW Kyoto while selling the BW Princess. BW LPG reported a net profit after tax of $122.3 million for the third quarter of 2023, while Navigator posted adjusted EBITDA of $72.2 million for the same period.

Factuality Level: 8
Factuality Justification: The article provides specific data and information about the projected growth of liquefied petroleum gas exports by very large gas carriers in North America and the Middle East. It includes statements from BW LPG and Navigator Holdings Ltd. regarding the forecasted growth rates. The article also mentions factors contributing to the growth, such as high oil prices and new propane dehydrogenation plants in China. The information provided is supported by data and statements from industry sources.
Noise Level: 7
Noise Justification: The article provides specific data and forecasts on the growth of liquefied petroleum gas exports by very large gas carriers. It also mentions the factors driving this growth, such as high oil prices and new propane dehydrogenation plants in China. The article includes information on transit restrictions at the Panama Canal and their impact on shipping routes and costs. It also mentions the expansion of an ethylene export terminal in the U.S. Gulf Coast. However, the article lacks analysis of the potential risks or challenges facing the industry, and it does not provide any actionable insights or solutions.
Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: The article provides information on the growth of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports, particularly from North America and the Middle East. This information is relevant to companies involved in the LPG industry, including gas carriers, oil and gas exploration companies, and propane dehydrogenation plants.
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Rating Justification: The article does not mention any extreme events or their impacts.
Public Companies: BW LPG (N/A), Navigator Holdings Ltd. (N/A), Enterprise Product Partners L.P (N/A)
Key People: Dermot McGowan (Reporter), Rob Sheridan (Editor)

Reported publicly: www.marketwatch.com