Will the S&P 500 continue its rally?

  • S&P 500 has had its best three-weeks since 2020
  • Historically, the index has kept gains and added to them after three-week rallies
  • The index is up 9.6% over the past three weeks
  • S&P 500 is up 7.6% in November and more than 17% since the start of the year
  • Despite high interest rates, the index has managed to keep climbing
  • In the past, the index has continued to rise over one-, two-, three-, four-, and eight-week periods after three-week surges
  • The median gain four weeks out is 2.21%, and a figure that jumps to 3.3% after eight weeks
  • Recent years have shown mixed results after three-week jumps
  • Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but bullish historical patterns have often played out this year

The S&P 500 has recently experienced its best three-week performance since 2020, with the index rising 9.6% over that time. Despite concerns about high interest rates, historical data suggests that the index has a tendency to keep climbing after such rallies. In fact, going back to 1962, there have been 39 other instances where the S&P 500 delivered three-week percentage changes of 9% or more, and in the majority of those cases, the index continued to rise over one-, two-, three-, four-, and eight-week periods. The median gains after four and eight weeks were 2.21% and 3.3%, respectively. However, it’s worth noting that recent years have shown mixed results after three-week jumps, so past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Nonetheless, with bullish historical patterns often playing out this year, there is optimism that the S&P 500’s rally may continue.

Factuality Level: 7
Factuality Justification: The article provides historical data and patterns to support the claim that the S&P 500 is likely to have a positive end to the year and start of 2024. However, it acknowledges that recent years have shown mixed results, indicating that past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Noise Level: 3
Noise Justification: The article provides historical data and analysis on the performance of the S&P 500 after three-week rallies. It acknowledges that past performance is not a guarantee of future results and mentions other factors that could impact the market. However, it lacks in-depth analysis and does not provide actionable insights or solutions.
Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: The article discusses the recent performance of the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, indicating potential market movements and trends.
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Rating Justification: The article primarily focuses on the recent market performance and historical patterns of the S&P 500, without mentioning any extreme events or their impacts.
Public Companies: Nasdaq Composite (N/A), Dow Jones Industrial Average (N/A), S&P 500 (N/A)
Key People:

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