Trade frictions and refinery outages impact North Atlantic market

  • Citigroup forecasts stronger diesel cracks and higher gasoline margins in the North Atlantic market
  • Trade frictions and refinery outages have impacted markets on both sides of the Atlantic
  • Citigroup predicts diesel cracks to widen by $5/bbl above current margins
  • Global refinery downtime has risen to about 5.4 million b/d
  • Diesel stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub are significantly below previous lows
  • Lower refinery runs expected to reduce naphtha, gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, and residual fuel production
  • Conflict in the Mideast has led to higher freight rates and lower imports of gasoline and diesel
  • U.S. gasoline cracks could rise ahead of the switch to summer specifications in March
  • Outlook for European cracks is uncertain due to concerns about the new Dangote refinery in Nigeria
  • Gasoline stocks in Europe are below normal levels
  • Meager financial positioning in long futures and options could lead to a rally
  • Saudi Arabia’s decision to halt heavy crude production confirms rising spare capacity

Citigroup predicts stronger diesel cracks and higher gasoline margins in the North Atlantic market. Trade frictions and refinery outages have impacted markets on both sides of the Atlantic. The bank forecasts diesel cracks to widen by $5/bbl above current margins. Global refinery downtime has risen to about 5.4 million b/d, leading to lower inventory buffers in Europe and the U.S. Diesel stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub are significantly below previous lows. Lower refinery runs are expected to reduce production of naphtha, gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, and residual fuel. Conflict in the Mideast has led to higher freight rates and lower imports of gasoline and diesel. U.S. gasoline cracks could rise ahead of the switch to summer specifications in March. The outlook for European cracks is uncertain due to concerns about the new Dangote refinery in Nigeria. Gasoline stocks in Europe are below normal levels. Meager financial positioning in long futures and options could lead to a rally. Saudi Arabia’s decision to halt heavy crude production confirms rising spare capacity.

Public Companies: Citigroup (C)
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Factuality Level: 7
Justification: The article provides a lot of specific information and data about petroleum forecasts, refinery outages, inventory levels, and trade frictions. However, it is important to note that the information is sourced from Citigroup and there is no independent verification of the claims made in the article. Therefore, while the article provides detailed information, the factuality level is not at the highest level due to the lack of independent verification.

Noise Level: 7
Justification: The article provides a detailed analysis of Citigroup’s petroleum forecasts and the factors that could impact diesel cracks and gasoline margins in the North Atlantic market. It includes information on trade frictions, refinery outages, inventory levels, refinery downtime, and freight costs. The article also mentions the potential impact of conflict in the Mideast and the new Dangote refinery in Nigeria. However, the article lacks scientific rigor and intellectual honesty as it does not provide evidence or data to support its claims. It also does not provide actionable insights or solutions for readers.

Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: The article provides information on Citigroup’s petroleum forecasts and their expectations for diesel cracks and gasoline margins in the North Atlantic market. This could impact the energy sector and related companies.

Presence of Extreme Event: No
Nature of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating of the Extreme Event: No
Justification: The article focuses on Citigroup’s petroleum forecasts and market analysis, without mentioning any extreme events or their impact.

Reported publicly: www.marketwatch.com