Index at 46.6 in September: A Sign of Recovery?

  • Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) rose to 46.6 in September from 46.1 in August
  • Index has been below the 50 break-even point since November 2021
  • Recovered from a low of 35.4 in May
  • ISM index points to weak demand for five straight months
  • Most other regional Fed manufacturing surveys slipped in September
  • Boeing’s aircraft orders have been weak this year

The Chicago Business Barometer, a gauge of business activity, has shown some signs of recovery as it rose to 46.6 in September from 46.1 in August. However, it remains below the break-even point between contraction and expansion since November 2021. The index is produced by ISM-Chicago with MNI and released to subscribers three minutes before its public release at 9:45 am Eastern time. This comes as most other regional Fed manufacturing surveys have slipped in September, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, notes that the Chicago PMI tends to underperform when Boeing’s aircraft orders are weak, which has been the case this year due to an ongoing strike by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers.

Factuality Level: 8
Factuality Justification: The article provides accurate information about the Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) and its recent changes, as well as relevant context from the ISM index. It also includes a quote from an economist that adds insight into the relationship between Boeing’s performance and the Chicago PMI. However, it could be more concise in some areas and may not include any misleading or irrelevant information.
Noise Level: 4
Noise Justification: The article provides relevant information about the Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) and its recent increase, but it could benefit from more context and analysis on the implications of this change for the economy or specific industries. It also briefly mentions Boeing’s impact on the index without diving deeper into the reasons behind their weak aircraft orders or the broader effects of the strike.
Public Companies: Boeing (BA)
Key People: Ian Shepherdson (chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics)

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Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: The Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) impacts financial markets as it is a gauge of business activity and an indicator for the national ISM data. It reflects the manufacturing sector’s performance, which can affect stock prices of companies like Boeing.
Financial Rating Justification: This article discusses the Chicago PMI, an important economic indicator that influences financial markets by providing information about the manufacturing sector’s performance. The index is related to Boeing’s performance and affects its stock price due to its connection with aircraft orders.
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: Other
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Extreme Rating Justification: There is no extreme event mentioned in the text and it doesn’t meet the criteria of an extreme event happening within the last 48 hours.
Move Size: No market move size mentioned.
Sector: Manufacturing
Direction: Up
Magnitude: Small
Affected Instruments: Stocks

Reported publicly: www.marketwatch.com