Economists believe a potential recession won’t be as dire as commonly perceived

  • Citi Research predicts S&P 500 earnings per share to increase to $245 in 2024, up 11% from current estimates
  • Citi economists anticipate a potential recession in 2024, but believe it won’t be as dire as commonly perceived
  • Citi’s equity analysts raised their price target for the S&P 500 to 5,000 for mid-2024
  • The percentage of companies in the S&P 500 with positive year-over-year earnings growth is expected to rise in 2024
  • Citi expects a more resilient fundamental backdrop, even if sentiment and multiples sour

Citi Research projects that the S&P 500’s earnings per share may increase to around $245 next year, up about 11% from its current 2023 estimate. Despite anticipating a potential economic recession in 2024, Citi economists believe that a two-quarter recession does not need to be as dire of an outcome as commonly perceived. Citi’s equity analysts have raised their price target for the S&P 500 to 5,000 for mid-2024, citing increased chances for a ‘soft landing’ for the U.S. economy. The percentage of companies in the index with positive year-over-year earnings growth is expected to rise in 2024, possibly reaching a 20-year high. Citi expects a more resilient fundamental backdrop, even if sentiment and multiples sour.

Public Companies: Citigroup (C)
Private Companies: undefined
Key People: Scott Chronert (Head of U.S. equity strategy at Citi Research), Savita Subramanian (Head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at BofA Global Research)

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Factuality Level: 7
Justification: The article provides information from Citigroup’s research business and includes quotes from Scott Chronert, head of U.S. equity strategy at Citi Research. It also mentions Citi’s price target for the S&P 500 and their expectations for earnings growth. However, the article does not provide any counterarguments or alternative perspectives, which could affect the overall factuality level.

Noise Level: 7
Justification: The article provides some analysis and projections on the S&P 500’s earnings in 2024, but it lacks scientific rigor and intellectual honesty. It relies heavily on the opinions of Citigroup’s analysts without providing much evidence or data to support their claims. The article also does not explore the consequences of these projections on those who bear the risks or hold powerful people accountable. Overall, it contains some relevant information but lacks depth and critical analysis.

Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: The article discusses the potential increase in S&P 500 earnings and its impact on the stock market.

Presence of Extreme Event: No
Nature of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating of the Extreme Event: No
Justification: The article focuses on financial topics, specifically the projected increase in S&P 500 earnings despite concerns of a potential recession in 2024. There is no mention of any extreme events.

Reported publicly: www.marketwatch.com