How rising gas prices and mortgage rates may impact Biden’s re-election chances

  • Watch gasoline prices and mortgage rates for clues on the election outcome
  • Moody’s Analytics model predicts a close race between Biden and Trump
  • Gas prices may rise due to hurricane season or oil exporters’ output cuts
  • Mortgage rates remain high despite Fed’s efforts to combat inflation

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, economists suggest that gasoline prices and mortgage rates could be crucial factors influencing its outcome. Moody’s Analytics model predicts a close race between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, with gas prices and interest rates being the most sensitive variables affecting Biden’s vote share. Rising gas prices may result from hurricane season or oil exporters’ output cuts, while mortgage rates remain high due to the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting policies.

Factuality Level: 8
Factuality Justification: The article provides accurate information about the Moody’s Analytics model predicting a close election outcome based on economic factors such as gasoline prices and mortgage rates. It also discusses potential risks to President Biden’s re-election chances due to these variables. The article cites sources and experts in the field, making it generally reliable and informative.
Noise Level: 4
Noise Justification: The article provides some relevant information about economic indicators that could impact the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, but it is mostly focused on speculation and predictions based on past data. It lacks in-depth analysis or new insights, and relies heavily on expert opinions without providing substantial evidence or examples to support its claims.
Public Companies: Moody’s Analytics (N/A)
Private Companies: AAA
Key People: Justin Begley (Economist at Moody’s Analytics), Andrew Gross (Spokesperson for AAA)

Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: Economic indicators like gasoline prices, mortgage rates, and consumer confidence
Financial Rating Justification: The article discusses how economic conditions can be a critical determinant of the outcome in the 2024 presidential election and mentions specific economic indicators such as gasoline prices, mortgage rates, and consumer confidence. It also explains that these factors can impact financial markets and companies through their influence on voter preferences.
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Extreme Rating Justification: ·

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