Fed officials cautious about immediate rate cuts due to inflation concerns
- Goldman Sachs economists now expect four rate cuts in 2024
- First rate cut not expected until June
- Shift in expectations prompted by recent comments from Federal Reserve officials
- Fed officials want to see continued progress on inflation before cutting rates
- Recent U.S. consumer and producer price data came in hotter-than-expected
- Fed officials now want more concrete signs of inflation reaching 2% before a cut
- Goldman Sachs expects rate cuts in June, July, September, and December
- UBS also revised its rate-cut expectations to 75 basis points in total this year
- Futures-market pricing indicates a 20% chance of a rate reduction in May and a 70% chance in June
Goldman Sachs economists have revised their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024, now predicting four cuts instead of five. The first rate cut is not expected until June, following recent comments from Federal Reserve officials and minutes of the latest policy meeting. Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller’s remarks about the need for continued progress on inflation suggest that a rate cut in May is unlikely. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker also emphasized that immediate cuts should not be expected. The minutes of the Fed’s January meeting showed that most officials were not in a hurry to lower rates. Recent U.S. consumer and producer price data came in higher than expected, leading to a shift in Fed thinking. Fed officials now want more concrete signs of inflation reaching 2% before considering a rate cut. Goldman Sachs expects rate cuts in June, July, September, and December. UBS has also revised its rate-cut expectations. Futures-market pricing indicates a 20% chance of a rate reduction in May and a 70% chance in June.
Factuality Level: 7
Factuality Justification: The article provides a detailed overview of Goldman Sachs economists’ revised expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024, supported by recent comments from Federal Reserve officials and minutes of the latest policy meeting. The information is presented in a straightforward manner without significant bias or sensationalism. However, the article could benefit from more context on the broader economic implications of these rate cut expectations.
Noise Level: 3
Noise Justification: The article provides a detailed analysis of Goldman Sachs economists’ revised expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024. It includes information on recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, minutes of the latest policy meeting, and changes in Fed thinking. The article stays on topic and supports its claims with evidence and examples. However, there are some repetitive statements and unnecessary details that could be considered noise.
Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: The article provides information on the expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which can impact financial markets and companies.
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Rating Justification: The article discusses the expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which can have implications for financial markets and companies. However, there is no mention of any extreme events or their impact.
Public Companies: Goldman Sachs (GS), UBS (UBS)
Key People: Jan Hatzius (Chief Economist), Christopher Waller (Federal Reserve Gov), Patrick Harker (Philadelphia Fed President), Michelle Bowman (Governor), Neel Kashkari (President), Raphael Bostic (President), Jerome Powell (Fed Chairman)
Reported publicly:
www.marketwatch.com 
