Oil-demand growth revised down to 1.1 million barrels a day
- IEA lowers 2024 oil-demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels a day
- Subdued industrial activity and mild winter temperatures reduce gasoil consumption
- OECD oil demand contracts in the first quarter
- Global growth increasingly dependent on emerging economies
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for oil-demand growth in 2024 due to subdued industrial activity and mild winter temperatures. The revised forecast now stands at 1.1 million barrels a day, down from the previous estimate of 1.2 million barrels a day. The contraction in oil demand in OECD countries, particularly in Europe, contributed to the revision. European gasoil demand fell by 140,000 barrels a day in the first quarter, driven by a declining share of diesel cars in the continent’s fleet. In contrast, non-OECD demand remained relatively resilient, growing by 1.2 million barrels a day year-on-year. The IEA’s report also highlighted that global growth is increasingly dependent on emerging economies. Despite the downward revision for 2024, the IEA raised its oil-demand growth forecast for next year to 1.2 million barrels a day. The agency’s estimates for total demand remain comparatively unchanged, with an average of 103.2 million barrels a day expected for this year and 104.3 million barrels a day for next year. The IEA’s projections continue to be lower than those of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which forecasts global oil-demand growth of 2.2 million barrels a day this year and 1.8 million barrels a day next year. The IEA also provided updates on oil supply, refinery margins, and global economic outlook in its report.
Factuality Level: 7
Factuality Justification: The article provides detailed information about the International Energy Agency’s revised forecast for oil-demand growth, including specific numbers and factors influencing the changes. It also includes data on oil prices, global economic outlook, OPEC forecasts, and global supply estimates. The information presented is factual and based on the IEA’s report.
Noise Level: 3
Noise Justification: The article provides detailed information on the International Energy Agency’s revised forecast for oil-demand growth, including factors influencing the demand, global economic outlook, and supply projections. It stays on topic and supports its claims with data and examples. However, it lacks in-depth analysis, accountability, and actionable insights.
Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: Oil markets
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Rating Justification:
Public Companies: Equinor (EQNR)
Key People: Giulia Petroni (Writer)
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