Critical information for navigating the market
- Inflation’s path will drive the stock market next year
- New data shows global disinflationary trend
- Fed expects core PCE to fall to 2.4% by end of 2024
- Three scenarios for inflation and market reaction
- Companies that have lagged, like small caps, should catch up
- Stock futures drifting south, bond yields dropping
- FedEx cuts sales forecast, Tesla cancels merit stock awards
- Top tickers: TSLA, NVDA, NIO, GME, AMC, MARA, BABA, AAPL, PLTR, COIN
New data from the U.K. confirms a global disinflationary trend, raising questions about the future of inflation and its impact on the stock market. Analysts at 22V Research have outlined three scenarios for how the market will react. The Federal Reserve expects core PCE to fall to 2.4% by the end of 2024. In the first scenario, growth remains above trend and the Fed cuts rates, favoring deeper cyclicals. In the second scenario, core inflation tracks above 3%, leading to higher Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. The third scenario sees inflation reaching 2.4% earlier than expected, resulting in rate cuts and further easing in financial conditions. The analysts also suggest that companies that have lagged, such as small caps, will continue to catch up. In the current market, stock futures are drifting south and bond yields are dropping. FedEx has cut its sales forecast, while Tesla has canceled merit stock awards. The top tickers to watch include TSLA, NVDA, NIO, GME, AMC, MARA, BABA, AAPL, PLTR, and COIN.
Public Companies: S&P 500 (SPX), FedEx (FDX), Tesla (TSLA), Alibaba (BABA), Nvidia (NVDA), Nio (NIO), GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Marathon Digital (MARA), Apple (AAPL), Palantir (PLTR), Coinbase Global (COIN)
Private Companies:
Key People: Dennis DeBusschere (Analyst at 22V Research), Eddie Wu (CEO of Alibaba’s e-commerce business)
Factuality Level: 7
Justification: The article provides information about new data on falling prices in the UK and discusses different scenarios for inflation and the stock market. It includes quotes from analysts and mentions key asset performance. However, the article also includes some tangential information about stock tickers and random reads that are not directly related to the main topic.
Noise Level: 3
Justification: The article contains a mix of relevant information about inflation and market reactions, but it also includes unrelated information about stock performance and random news stories. The article lacks depth and analysis, and it jumps between different topics without providing a cohesive narrative.
Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: The article discusses the impact of inflation on the stock market and provides analysis on how different scenarios of inflation levels may affect various sectors and assets.
Presence of Extreme Event: No
Nature of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating of the Extreme Event: No
Justification: The article primarily focuses on the impact of inflation on the stock market and does not mention any extreme events.
www.marketwatch.com 
