Tentative signs of recovery despite the recession

  • New Zealand’s manufacturing sector remains in contraction for 14 consecutive months
  • Seasonally adjusted PMI for April was 48.9, up from 46.8 in March
  • Manufacturing production returned to expansion for the first time since January 2023
  • Manufacturing employment returned to slight expansion
  • New orders remained firmly in contraction
  • Proportion of negative comments increased to 69% in April
  • Overall lack of sales and orders was the dominant theme in comments
  • New Zealand’s economy is in recession
  • Mounting evidence that elevated interest rates are causing financial stress
  • Unemployment rate in New Zealand jumped sharply in the first three months of this year

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector has been in contraction for 14 consecutive months, with the seasonally adjusted PMI for April at 48.9, up from 46.8 in March. Although manufacturing production and employment showed slight expansion, new orders remained in contraction. Negative comments increased to 69% in April, with a lack of sales and orders being the dominant theme. The country’s economy is in recession, with evidence of elevated interest rates causing financial stress. Additionally, the unemployment rate in New Zealand saw a sharp increase in the first three months of this year.

Factuality Level: 8
Factuality Justification: The article provides specific data and statistics from the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index to support the claims about the New Zealand manufacturing sector. It includes information about the PMI for April, trends in manufacturing production and employment, new orders, and negative comments from the survey. The article also mentions the central bank’s decision on the official cash rate and the increase in the unemployment rate. Overall, the article presents factual information supported by data, making it relatively high in factuality.
Noise Level: 3
Noise Justification: The article provides relevant information about the New Zealand manufacturing sector, including data from the latest BNZ BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index. It discusses the sector’s performance, trends, and challenges, such as new orders remaining in contraction and negative comments from the survey. The article also touches on the broader economic context, including the impact of elevated interest rates and the rising unemployment rate. Overall, the article stays on topic, supports its claims with data, and offers insights into the current state of the manufacturing sector in New Zealand.
Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: The article mentions that New Zealand’s manufacturing sector has been in contraction for 14 consecutive months, indicating potential impact on the country’s economy and financial markets.
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Rating Justification: The article discusses the state of New Zealand’s manufacturing sector and its impact on the economy, but does not mention any extreme events.
Private Companies: BNZ – BusinessNZ
Key People: James Glynn (Writer)

Reported publicly: www.wsj.com