Fall Seasonal Downtrend Returns as Geopolitical Concerns Persist

  • Petroleum futures sold off, bringing prices below pre-Hamas attack levels
  • Typical fall seasonal downtrend is back in place
  • Brent contract dropped through support levels, trading at $82.39/bbl
  • West Texas Intermediate is hovering above critical support levels, trading at $78.09/bbl
  • ULSD contract experiencing bigger selloff, with December futures down by more than 10cts
  • RBOB contract fallen by just over 6 cents, trading at $2.1739/gal
  • No market threatening to fall below $2/gal level, except Gulf Coast

Petroleum futures experienced a significant sell-off, causing prices to drop below the levels seen just before and after the Hamas attack on Israel. This decline can be attributed to both geopolitical concerns and the return of the typical fall seasonal downtrend. The Brent contract dropped through support levels, reaching a trading price of $82.39 per barrel, the lowest since August. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is also down, hovering above critical support levels at $78.09 per barrel. The ULSD contract has seen a larger selloff, with December futures down by more than 10 cents. The RBOB contract has fallen by just over 6 cents, trading at $2.1739 per gallon. Despite these declines, no market is currently threatening to fall below the $2 per gallon level, except for the Gulf Coast. Overall, the petroleum market is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices reaching levels not seen since late August.

Factuality Level: 7
Factuality Justification: The article provides specific information about the decline in petroleum futures prices and the factors contributing to it, such as the typical fall seasonal downtrend and the drop in support levels. The information is based on technical analysis and market trends. However, the article does not provide a comprehensive analysis of all factors influencing petroleum prices, such as geopolitical concerns or supply and demand dynamics. Therefore, there may be some limitations in terms of providing a complete and accurate picture of the situation.
Noise Level: 3
Noise Justification: The article provides specific information about the decline in petroleum futures prices and the factors contributing to it. It includes data on support levels, previous lows, and technical analysis. However, it lacks analysis of long-term trends or antifragility, and does not hold powerful people accountable or explore consequences of decisions.
Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: Petroleum futures
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Rating Justification: The article discusses the decline in petroleum futures prices, which is relevant to financial markets. However, there is no mention of any extreme event.
Private Companies: ICAP,Oil Price Information Service,Dow Jones & Co.
Key People: Walter Zimmerman (ICAP technical analyst), Denton Cinquegrana (Reporter), Michael Kelly (Editor)

Reported publicly: www.marketwatch.com