Art market struggles as financial returns plummet to historic lows.

  • Spring art auction season recorded the worst financial performance in the 21st century.
  • Mean return for repeat sale pairs of artworks was almost zero, the lowest since 2000.
  • Impressionist art showed resilience with a mean return of 3.31% this year.
  • Contemporary artist Damien Hirst’s works had a negative mean return of 2.3%.
  • Sell-through rates reached 33%, the highest level since 2006.

The recent spring art auction season has been deemed the worst in the 21st century, according to a study by JP Mei & MA Moses Art Market Consultancy. This analysis, which focuses on repeat sales of artworks at major auction houses like Christie’s, Phillips, and Sotheby’s, reveals that the mean return for artworks sold this spring was nearly zero, marking the lowest performance since 2000. nnThe study, conducted by Jianping Mei and Michael Moses, highlights that the highest mean return was recorded in 2007 at over 0.13%, while the previous low of 0.02% occurred during the financial crisis in 2009. The risk associated with returns this year was ten times higher than in any other year this century, indicating a challenging environment for investors. nnIn contrast, impressionist art, particularly works by Claude Monet, has shown more stability, achieving a mean return of 7% with low risk. On the other hand, contemporary artist Damien Hirst’s pieces have performed poorly, with a mean return of -2.3% and high risk, suggesting that investors may want to steer clear of his works. nnExperts like Drew Watson from Bank of America Private Bank emphasize that while this analysis provides valuable insights, it should be viewed in the broader context of the art market, which currently favors buyers over sellers. Many sellers are opting to hold onto their artworks or sell privately to maintain control over pricing and timing. nnLooking ahead, the art market is expected to continue correcting from the highs seen post-pandemic, with fewer discretionary sales anticipated. The upcoming U.S. presidential election may also impact the market dynamics. nnDespite the overall downturn, impressionist and modern art categories have shown signs of strength, with a mean return of 3.31% this year. However, ultra-contemporary art has struggled significantly, recording a mean return of -8.25%. nnThe Mei-Moses dataset, which includes around 50,000 repeat sale pairs since 2000, aims to provide transparent insights into the art market, allowing collectors to weigh the joy of art ownership against potential financial returns. Ultimately, the study underscores the importance of informed decision-making in the art investment landscape.·

Factuality Level: 8
Factuality Justification: The article provides a detailed analysis of the art market based on data from reputable sources, including the Mei-Moses Art Market Consultancy. It presents factual information about auction results, returns on art investments, and expert opinions without significant bias or sensationalism. However, some sections could be seen as tangential or overly detailed, which slightly detracts from its overall clarity and focus.·
Noise Level: 8
Noise Justification: The article provides a detailed analysis of the art market, supported by data from the Mei-Moses database, and discusses the implications of recent auction results. It holds powerful figures accountable by analyzing the performance of various artists and their works, while also considering broader market trends. The article stays on topic, avoids irrelevant information, and offers actionable insights for potential investors in the art market.·
Public Companies: Christie’s (), Phillips (), Sotheby’s (), Bank of America (BAC)
Key People: Jianping Mei (Finance Professor at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business), Michael Moses (Retired Professor), Drew Watson (Head of Art Services at Bank of America Private Bank)

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Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: The article discusses the performance of the art market, particularly auction sales, which can impact investors and companies involved in art sales and investments.
Financial Rating Justification: The article provides insights into the financial performance of artworks at auction, including returns and risks associated with art investments, making it relevant to financial topics.·
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Extreme Rating Justification: The article discusses the performance of the art market and recent auction results but does not report on any extreme event that occurred in the last 48 hours.·
Move Size: No market move size mentioned.
Sector: All
Direction: Down
Magnitude: Large
Affected Instruments: Artworks

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