Rising inflation and the need for confidence in lowering inflation

  • The Fed is likely to shift back to a hawkish stance due to rising inflation
  • Powell and his colleagues have been leaning dovish but that is expected to change
  • The Fed wants to build confidence in lowering inflation before cutting rates
  • The earliest opportunity for a rate cut is September, but December is also possible
  • A rate hike is unlikely but not impossible
  • There are concerns about stagflation if the economy slows down and inflation remains high
  • The Fed is expected to announce a slowdown in its quantitative tightening program
  • The Fed will likely reduce the pace of shrinking its balance sheet
  • The runoff of Treasurys will be slowed to $30 billion per month
  • The Fed may stop the QT program by the end of this year

The Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, is expected to shift back to a hawkish stance due to rising inflation. Over the past six months, Powell and his colleagues have been leaning dovish, but economists believe that will change. The Fed wants to build confidence in lowering inflation before cutting rates, which may happen as early as September or possibly in December. While a rate hike is unlikely, there are concerns about stagflation if the economy slows down and inflation remains high. Additionally, the Fed is expected to announce a slowdown in its quantitative tightening program, reducing the pace of shrinking its balance sheet. The runoff of Treasurys will be slowed to $30 billion per month. Some Wall Street economists believe the Fed may stop the QT program by the end of this year.

Factuality Level: 2
Factuality Justification: The article contains a lot of speculation and predictions about future events, which may or may not come true. It also includes opinions from various economists without providing a balanced view or concrete evidence to support the claims. The article lacks in-depth analysis and relies heavily on assumptions and forecasts, making it less factual and more speculative.
Noise Level: 3
Noise Justification: The article provides a detailed analysis of the Federal Reserve’s potential actions regarding interest rates, inflation, and quantitative tightening. It includes insights from various economists and experts, discussing different scenarios and possibilities. The information is relevant and focused on the topic without diving into unrelated territories. However, the article contains some repetitive information and speculations that may not provide concrete actionable insights.
Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: The article discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates and monetary policy on financial markets.
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Rating Justification: The article focuses on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its potential impact on financial markets, specifically regarding interest rates and monetary policy. There is no mention of any extreme events or their impact.
Public Companies: Barclays (BARC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), BMO Capital Markets (BMO)
Private Companies: KPMG,Bank of Canada,Capital Economics,Wrightson ICAP,BofA Global Research
Key People: Jerome Powell (Fed Chair), Ellen Meade (Economics Professor at Duke University), Marc Giannoni (Chief U.S. Economist at Barclays), Diane Swonk (Chief Economist at KPMG), Michael Feroli (Chief U.S. Economist at JPMorgan Chase), Claudia Sahm (Independent Policy Adviser), Scott Anderson (Chief U.S. Economist at BMO Capital Markets), Carl Tannenbaum (Chief Economist for Northern Trust), Brian Bethune (Economics Professor at Boston College), Lou Crandall (Chief Economist at Wrightson ICAP), Mark Cabana (Head of U.S. Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research)

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Reported publicly: www.marketwatch.com