Wall Street’s favorite permabear predicts economic downturn
- Leading indicators suggest a U.S. recession has already begun
- Employment in logistics jobs like trucking has plummeted
- Temporary-help subset of services employment has also seen a downturn
- Unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% in October
Wall Street’s favorite permabear, Albert Edwards, has highlighted two leading indicators that suggest a U.S. recession has already begun. Employment in logistics jobs, such as trucking, has plummeted due to persistent pandemic-related overhangs in demand for goods. Additionally, the temporary-help subset of services employment has seen a decisive downturn, mirroring patterns before previous recessions. These indicators, along with the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% in October, raise concerns about a soft landing for the U.S. economy in 2024.
Factuality Level: 7
Factuality Justification: The article provides information about Albert Edwards’ warning regarding the U.S. economy and highlights two leading employment indicators that have preceded economic downturns in the past. It also mentions the current state of the U.S. labor market. However, the article lacks in-depth analysis and context, and it does not provide a balanced perspective on the topic.
Noise Level: 7
Noise Justification: The article provides some analysis of leading employment indicators and their correlation with economic downturns. However, it lacks scientific rigor and intellectual honesty as it relies heavily on the opinion of one individual, Albert Edwards, without providing counterarguments or alternative perspectives. The article also lacks evidence, data, or examples to support its claims. Additionally, it does not provide actionable insights or solutions for the reader.
Financial Relevance: Yes
Financial Markets Impacted: The article discusses the warning from Albert Edwards, a global strategist at Société Générale, about the possibility of a recession in the U.S. economy. This could impact financial markets and companies.
Presence Of Extreme Event: No
Nature Of Extreme Event: No
Impact Rating Of The Extreme Event: No
Rating Justification: The article focuses on the potential economic downturn and its impact on the U.S. economy and markets. While it does not mention any extreme events, it provides insights into leading employment indicators that have historically preceded recessions.
Public Companies: Société Générale (SOGN.PA)
Key People: Albert Edwards (Société Générale global strategist)
Reported publicly:
www.marketwatch.com 
